21 Feb Abi-Cerved, leap forward in the credit deterioration rate in 2023

“Extreme economic uncertainty and negative expectations lead to a first increase in 2023 in the credit deterioration rate since 2012”. This is what emerges from the latest Abi-Cerved Outlook on non-performing loans for companies which foresees a real trend reversal in the industry with a deterioration rate rising from 2% to 2.3% at the end of 2022 and estimated at 3.8 % in 2023, a level not reached since 2017. The negative expectations are connected to some factors such as the rise in interest rates decided by the ECB and the lasting war between Russia and Ukraine accompanied by only a partial replacement of the measures of credit support adopted during the pandemic and now expired.
In particular, the Outlook focus into the trend of deterioration rate by size class and economic sector and in particular it emerges that construction represents the sector with the highest deterioration rate compared to the others examined (agriculture, industry and services) but despite this, they are the only sector that in 2024 has an even lower rate than in the pre-Covid period (3.8% in 2024 vs 4% in 2019). Relevant, explains the Outlook, may be the benefit that construction can derive from major public works financed by PNRR funds.